Two Percent with Michael Easter

Two Percent with Michael Easter

Does one big meal lead to weight gain?

How to avoid Thanksgiving weight gain.

Nov 26, 2025
∙ Paid

Tomorrow is the day Americans collectively eat like we’ve just been released from a starvation camp.

Estimates of just how many calories people eat at Thanksgiving dinner range widely. One group put the figure at 2,100 calories and another at 6,400.

But probably the best source—a team of historians from institutions like the Smithsonian, Pennington Biomedical Research Center, University of Wisconsin, and more—landed on an average of 3,600 calories for the Thanksgiving meal alone.

Add breakfast, snacks, drinks, and late-night leftovers, and most people will reach into the 5,000-calorie range for the full day.

Which … that’s a lot! Especially when you consider that the average person burns about 1,750 calories a day at rest1 (~1600 for women, ~1850 for men) and hardly moves on Thanksgiving.

We eat more on Thanksgiving than on any other day. But, a question: does it actually matter? Will one day of maximal eating derail your weight and health?

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

  • The three eras of Thanksgiving and when it went off the caloric rails.

  • What the science says about whether one day of excessive eating actually matters.

  • My favorite strategy to enjoy myself during the holidays and remain healthy. It’s simple, doesn’t require altering recipes or any other annoying tactics, and it works.

Housekeeping:

  • The audio version is at the bottom of this post.

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Thanksgiving gluttony: A brief history

That team of researchers from the Smithsonian and other institutions wrote, “Over the past few decades, Thanksgiving has been identified as a potential contributor to annual weight gain in the United States.”

But they found that Thanksgiving day hasn’t always been a national exercise in gluttony.

The researchers examined historical texts, nutrition research, government reports, and more, and divided American Thanksgiving into three distinct eras.

Period 1: 1621 to 1863: “Celebrated Gratitude”

Average calories eaten: ~2,700

Thanksgiving was focused on a few things: prayer, gratitude, movement, and a meal—in that order.

The day varied by region. But a typical day was church in the morning, then activities like hunting in the afternoon, then a meal.

The food mattered, but it wasn’t the main event. The meal was basic: A couple of dishes and dessert.

Period 2: 1863 to 1941: “Emphasis on Food and Family”

Average calories eaten: ~3,000

In 1863, Abraham Lincoln made Thanksgiving an annual national holiday.

The focus began shifting from religion to food and family, and popular writers like Sarah Josepha Hale began writing in detail about the meal. The day became a “domestic festival.”

We did fewer physical activities and began leaning more into mass amusement, like watching parades (the first Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade was in 1924) and attending football games.

The menu stayed simple, calories didn’t rise much, but the day became more about gathering and eating—and a little less about movement.

Period 3: 1941 to Present: “The Caloric Boom”

Average calories eaten: ~3,700

After World War II, Thanksgiving became commercialized, motorized, televised, and increasingly sedentary. Food became the main event.

The researchers wrote, “The context of Thanksgiving have evolved to focus more on food and other social cues that are conducive to weight gain.”

Instead of participating in sports competitions, we started watching them on TV. The first nationally televised football game occurred on Thanksgiving Day in 1956. We were also more likely to drive to a friend’s house for the meal rather than walk. The food also took far less effort to acquire and prepare.

The day also became more commercial. The phrase Black Friday originated in Philadelphia in 1961, and advertisers began taking over the Macy’s Day Parade.

Across the three eras, the scientists found a clear progression. Thanksgiving went from a holiday focused on spiritual gratitude (Period 1) to one centered on food and family (Period 2), and finally into a modern holiday characterized by passive entertainment, ease of travel, excessive eating, and buying stuff (Period 3).

This shift has turned Thanksgiving into a caloric bomb.

But does one day of extreme overeating actually matter for your health? And is there a way to enjoy the feast without the consequence?

There’s some fascinating science on that topic, and we’ll cover it next. If you’re an international reader, the research shows it also applies to food-focused holidays around the globe.

Become a premium subscriber of Two Percent and get proven, no-fluff tools to boost your health, mindset, and performance - 3 per week for less than a cup of coffee.

In the rest of this letter, we’ll discuss:

  • Research on why holiday weight gain is more dangerous than we thought.

  • My specific strategy that allows you to enjoy Thanksgiving without gaining fat.

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