6 fitness longevity tests

Try them and see how you fare.

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The post

I recently received a text from my wise friend Brian Koppelman. He’s a great follow on Instagram, and you’ll be familiar with his work if you’ve watched a movie in the last three decades.

Over the past few years, Brian got in fantastic shape and went down a fitness rabbit hole. He wanted some goals to shoot for.

But as he researched fitness standards—how strong and fit a person should be—the information felt daunting, seemingly built for professional athletes. For example, deadlift 2.5 times your bodyweight or barbell back squat double your bodyweight.

I told Brian that I think many online strength and fitness standards suffer from what I think of as the “clinician’s illusion of fitness.”

In medicine, the clinician's illusion states that because doctors see the worst cases, they start thinking all cases are equally severe. But their patients don’t represent most people.

I think something similar happens with strength trainers who publish standards online, especially elite ones who work with athletes. They surround themselves with freaks of fitness, then base their standards on what’s ideal for college and pro sports rather than average people.

Brian texted me, “Your strength and fitness standards would be useful to see. Strong and fit enough—what is that to you?”

I see two ways to answer this question:

Path one: Research-based minimums.

We can examine the scientific literature on fitness tests/standards and their relationship to health outcomes.

• The upside of this path: We get validated thresholds that are attainable across the lifespan.

• The downside: Most of the research focuses on older adults or people with existing diseases. The cutoffs may be too low for people who are already fit or under the ages of 50 or 60.

• So think of this path as asking “what’s the minimum amount of fitness I need to reduce my risk of problems as I age?”

Path two: Practical standards for active people

We can consider research minimums, examine elite standards, consult trainers who work with a wide range of people, and apply common sense.

• The upside of this path: These targets can give active people a solid reserve of fitness for long-term health, and also tell us what “enough” fitness is for an awesome life.

• The downside: The answers may go slightly overboard if your goal is to be “good enough not to die too early.” And we’ll also have to extrapolate from data.

• Think of this route as asking “what’s best to be fit enough and build a lasting base?”

Instead of picking one, we’re going to look at both paths.

• Today, we’ll investigate the first path. We’ll cover six research-backed tests that predict how long and healthy you’ll live.

• On Wednesday, we’ll cover what we might think of as “Two Percent Fitness Standards.” These are for the go-getters who want to get really fit in the time they have and thrive over the long term.

Let’s roll …

6 research-backed fitness tests

Test 1: Climb 4 flights of stairs (~60 steps)

Researchers measure our cardiovascular fitness in METs (Metabolic Equivalents of a Task).

Think of METs as the currency of exercise (read more about METs here). Doing nothing is equivalent to one MET. Walking four miles an hour is six METs. (And if you can’t hit four METs, the odds favor you dying soon, according to a study in the Journal of Applied Physiology¹).

The more METs you can achieve, the lower your risk of death. For example, one study² found that for every extra MET you can get, your risk of death and heart attack drops 13 and 15 percent, respectively. The ability to hit 10 METs seems to be a great bang-for-buck metric to shoot for.

Enter the stair test. Researchers³ found that the time it takes you to climb four flights of stairs, or about 60 steps, is a simple way to assess cardio fitness.

• Finish in 90 seconds or more: Low enough fitness that you should exercise more and potentially talk to your doctor.

• Finish in less than one minute: Decent.

• Finish in 45 seconds or less: Best. This is equal to about 10 METs.

Test 2: Recover quickly

How quickly your heart rate drops after exercise says a lot about your health. If your heart rate doesn’t recover quickly after exercise, your odds of dying are higher⁴.

Here’s how to test it. Note that this is easiest if you have a heart rate monitor (e.g., an Apple Watch, Garmin, etc).

• Exercise briskly for a while so your heart rate gets elevated (e.g. jog or climb stairs).

• Stop and immediately note your heart rate.

• Now track your heart rate for one minute, and note your heart rate after one minute.

Your target: Having your heart rate drop at least 12 beats per minute after one minute of rest. The bigger the drop, the better (20 or more beats is best). People whose heart rates didn’t drop at least 12 beats had an increased risk of mortality.

Test 3: Walk for 6 minutes

Similar to the stair test, this test analyzes your cardio health. And it’s rather simple: set a timer and walk on a flat surface for six minutes. Track how far you walked.

• Less than 380 meters, or ~.23 miles: Poor. Older adults with this score showed a 1.5x greater risk of mortality⁵.

• More than 450 meters, or ~.3 miles: Good. A group of people in their 70s with this score had the lowest risk of death.

• 600 meters, or ~.37 miles: Best. This was roughly the average for a group of healthy people ages 21-78⁶. Your best bet is to maintain or exceed this over time.

Test 4: Carry half of your weight

Grip strength is tightly correlated with health outcomes. One study⁷ found that adults with the strongest grip had a 31 percent reduced risk of all-cause mortality.

Of course, grip strength itself isn’t magic. You can’t sit around watching TV while squeezing a tennis ball and become immortal. Rather, grip strength is a marker for someone who works their muscles. Think about it: To lift a weight, you have to grip the weight.

Researchers test grip strength using devices called Dynamometers. So get out your dynamometer and … I’m kidding. Only doctors and dorks own dynamometers.

A simpler way to test grip⁸: Carry a quarter of your bodyweight in each hand and walk 100 feet (or roughly 35-50 steps). For example, if you weigh 140 pounds, you’d carry a 35-pound dumbbell or kettlebell in each hand.

If you can do that, your grip and general strength are likely solid. Maintain that ability as you age.

Test 5: Sit and stand up from a chair five times fast

One group of researchers⁹ explained, “Falls are a leading cause of disability, injury, and death in elderly people, occurring each year in more than 30% and 50% of the population aged 65 and 80 older, respectively.”

This test is a good gauge of your lower body strength and power, your balance, and your risk of falling. Poor performance on it predicts future disability, falls, and sarcopenia (low muscle mass).

How to do it:

• Get a standard chair (about 17” or 44cm) that doesn’t have armrests.

• Cross your arms over your chest.

• Start a timer and stand up and sit down 5 times as fast as safely possible.

• Stop the timer on the 5th rise.

Here’s what your time means:

• 12 or more seconds: Elevated risk of problems (especially if it takes you more than 15 seconds).

• 10.1 to 12 seconds: Normal risk of problems.

• 10 seconds or less: Lowest risk of future problems.

Test 6: Get up from the ground without help

If you suck at getting up from the ground, it reveals issues with your mobility, strength, and balance. One study¹⁰ found that people who could get up from the floor using fewer limbs to stabilize themselves were less at risk of dying over 12 years.

Researchers use what they call the sit-to-stand test. You sit and then stand up from the ground. The less support you need from your knees and arms to rise, the better you’ll fare.

How to do it:

• To start, give yourself 10 points.

• Stand tall, then cross one foot in front of the other and sit down on the floor in a cross-legged position.

• From there, stand back up.

• Subtract one point for each time you used a hand, forearm, knee, or the side of your leg to stabilize yourself as you sat or stood.

• For example, if you didn’t have to use your knees or arms to get down or up, you’d get 10 points.

Researchers looked at the scores and death rates of a large group of older adults over 12 years and found:

• 10 points: 3.7 percent died.

• 8-9 points: 7 to 11 percent died.

• 4-8 points: 20.4 percent died.

• 0-4 points: 42.1 percent died.

Have fun, don’t die, be fit,

Michael

1. New records in aerobic power among octogenarian lifelong endurance athletes; Scott Trappe, Erik Hayes, Andrew Galpin, Leonard Kaminsky, Bozena Jemiolo, William Fink, Todd Trappe, Anna Jansson, Thomas Gustafsson, and Per Tesch; Journal of Applied Physiology; 2013114:1,3-10

2. Kodama S, Saito K, Tanaka S, et al. Cardiorespiratory Fitness as a Quantitative Predictor of All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events in Healthy Men and Women: A Meta-analysis. JAMA. 2009;301(19):2024–2035. doi:10.1001/jama.2009.681

3. JC Peteiro Vazquez, A Bouzas-Mosquera, C Rivadulla-Varela, C Barbeito-Caamano, JM Vazquez-Rodriguez, Time to step up 4 flights of stairs gives relevant information on exercise testing performance and results, European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging, Volume 22, Issue Supplement_1, January 2021, jeaa356.196.

4. Cole, C. R., Blackstone, E. H., Pashkow, F. J., Snader, C. E., & Lauer, M. S. (1999). Heart-rate recovery immediately after exercise as a predictor of mortality. The New England Journal of Medicine, 341(18), 1351-1357.

5. Yazdanyar A, Aziz MM, Enright PL, Edmundowicz D, Boudreau R, Sutton-Tyrell K, Kuller L, Newman AB. Association Between 6-Minute Walk Test and All-Cause Mortality, Coronary Heart Disease-Specific Mortality, and Incident Coronary Heart Disease. J Aging Health. 2014 Jun;26(4):583-599. doi: 10.1177/0898264314525665. Epub 2014 Apr 2. PMID: 24695552; PMCID: PMC4485950.

6. Cazzoletti L, Zanolin ME, Dorelli G, Ferrari P, Dalle Carbonare LG, Crisafulli E, Alemayohu MA, Olivieri M, Verlato G, Ferrari M. Six-minute walk distance in healthy subjects: reference standards from a general population sample. Respir Res. 2022 Apr 5;23(1):83. doi: 10.1186/s12931-022-02003-y. PMID: 35382813; PMCID: PMC8985335.

7. Antonio García-Hermoso, Iván Cavero-Redondo, Robinson Ramírez-Vélez, Jonatan R. Ruiz, Francisco B. Ortega, Duck-Chul Lee, Vicente Martínez-Vizcaíno; Muscular Strength as a Predictor of All-Cause Mortality in an Apparently Healthy Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Data From Approximately 2 Million Men and Women; Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Volume 99, Issue 10; 2018; Pages 2100-2113.e5; ISSN 0003-9993.

8. Here I’m extrapolating from the research, but better to extrapolate information into something useful than be pedantic and render information useless.

9. Buatois S, Miljkovic D, Manckoundia P, Gueguen R, Miget P, Vançon G, Perrin P, Benetos A. Five times sit to stand test is a predictor of recurrent falls in healthy community-living subjects aged 65 and older. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2008 Aug;56(8):1575-7. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2008.01777.x. PMID: 18808608.

10. Araújo CGS, de Souza E Silva CG, Myers J, Laukkanen JA, Ramos PS, Ricardo DR. Sitting-rising test scores predict natural and cardiovascular causes of deaths in middle-aged and older men and women. Eur J Prev Cardiol. 2025 Jun 18:zwaf325. doi: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf325. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 40569873.